Newsletter Archive
Every published edition of The Credibility Report, organized by publication month and edition sequence.
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Edition 39: Retro Softening, Cyber Capacity, and Explainable Boosting
JP Morgan argues that higher 2023 attachment points helped reinsurers outperform catastrophe trends, Hannover Re upsizes the 3264 Re retro cat bond to $200m, S&P keeps reinsurers central to cyber-risk transfer, Gallagher Re reports up to 20% retro rate reductions for loss-free accounts, and research spotlights explainable boosting, contingent-claim valuation stability, AI-agent insurance, mortality-gap forecasting, and risk-claim auditing.
July 2026
Edition 39: Retro Softening, Cyber Capacity, and Explainable Boosting
JP Morgan argues that higher 2023 attachment points helped reinsurers outperform catastrophe trends, Hannover Re upsizes the 3264 Re retro cat bond to $200m, S&P keeps reinsurers central to cyber-risk transfer, Gallagher Re reports up to 20% retro rate reductions for loss-free accounts, and research spotlights explainable boosting, contingent-claim valuation stability, AI-agent insurance, mortality-gap forecasting, and risk-claim auditing.
Edition 38: Private ILS, Terrorism Cat Bonds, and Spatial Flood Pricing
Hannover Re structures a small private cat-bond transaction, JP Morgan sees no near-term reinsurance-pricing floor, Swiss Re secures low-end Matterhorn Re retro pricing, AXA XL brings U.S. terrorism risk into a cat-bond structure, and research focuses on Bayesian flood pricing, semantic insurance pricing with LLMs, crypto cat bonds, grouped storm losses, and climate-sensitive mortality evidence.
Edition 37: Property-Cat Softening, Data-Center Climate Risk, and Forecasting Governance
July renewals extend property-cat softening, First Street puts data-center climate exposure into the accumulation frame, North Carolina bans third-party litigation funding, SOA retirement risk evidence highlights shocks and caregiving gaps, EIOPA keeps pressure on private-equity-owned insurers, and research focuses on lag relevance, structured shrinkage, linear forecasting baselines, and uncertainty-aware medical forecasting.
June 2026
Edition 36: Retro Softening, Infrastructure Climate Risk, and Rare-Event Models
Everest fixes $630m of Kilimanjaro III retro as pricing falls again, Swiss Re returns with Matterhorn Re protection, Florida Citizens renews a $2.82bn tower, data-centre climate exposure moves into the accumulation frame, U.S. P&C underwriting improves, and research focuses on rare-event generation, model-suite attribution, distorted utility, spatial disease mapping, and causal interpretability.
Edition 35: Florida Reinsurance, Cat-Bond Price Discovery, and Climate-Aware CAT Pricing
Florida enters the 2026 hurricane season better positioned but untested, cat bonds shape June renewal price discovery, Morocco explores sovereign climate-risk transfer, Achmea and Arch upsize cat-bond protection, and research focuses on climate-aware XL/CAT-bond pricing, reserving uncertainty, mortality fairness, and pension funding risk.
Edition 34: Cat-Bond Retrocession, P&C Underwriting Recovery, and LLM Claims Extraction
Everest targets $530m of North America retrocession through Kilimanjaro III Re, AM Best reports a $16.3bn U.S. P&C underwriting gain in Q1 2026, Southeast U.S. catastrophe programs lean into Rule 144A cat bonds, and arXiv surfaces a directly actuarial LLM workflow for unstructured claims data.
Edition 33: Florida Reinsurance Towers, Cyber Benchmarks, and Off-Policy Pricing
Florida June renewals, Heritage and HCI reinsurance towers, Slide catastrophe protection, NAIC cyber benchmark data, and research on off-policy pricing, social inflation, crash-rate credibility, and Bayesian model governance.
Edition 26: P&C Profitability, Reinsurance Capacity, and Climate-Mortality Models
Verisk reports a 92.4 U.S. P&C combined ratio in Q1 2026, Aon frames reinsurance conditions as buyer-friendly, Moody’s highlights uninsured-loss risk, Triple-I reviews the personal auto rebound, the Academy reviews ACA premium pressure, and arXiv surfaces fresh work on endogenous reinsurance pricing, climate-driven mortality forecasting, fair risk sharing, AI-agent insurance contracts, and systemic-risk Hawkes networks.
May 2026
Edition 32: Property-Cat Softening, Cat Bonds, and Survival Modelling
SCOR and Korean Re add catastrophe bond protection, mid-year property-cat renewals soften, Allianz Research sees P&C market normalisation, and research highlights off-policy pricing, survival diffusion, deep copulas, and model interaction explainability.
Edition 31: Cat Bonds, Florida Reinsurance Softening, and Reserving Bootstraps
World Bank prices Jamaica hurricane cat-bond protection, Progressive keeps monthly underwriting signal in focus, S&P Global flags funded-reinsurance capital pressure, Triple-I highlights insurer cyber resilience, and new reserving research sharpens bootstrap and likelihood practice.
Edition 30: Reinsurance Renewals, Ceded-Cost Bridges, and Explainable Neural Challengers
April reinsurance renewals confirm buyer-friendly but conditional softening: Aon shows higher demand and better terms, Swiss Re and Munich Re show technical price pressure with disciplined volume selection, Mapfre Re adds cat-bond capacity, Travelers highlights the cat-normalization caveat, and arXiv surfaces explainable neural-actuarial challenger modelling.
Edition 29: Soft Markets, Alternative Capital, and Algorithmic Pricing Fairness
Aon points to buyer-friendly but segmented market conditions, Guy Carpenter frames alternative capital as reinsurance architecture, Triple-I and NCCI sharpen the P/C profitability picture, Aviva reports GI growth with ratio improvement, and arXiv surfaces a directly relevant fairness-testing paper for deterministic pricing algorithms.
Edition 28: Reinsurance Renewals, ILS Appetite, and Rare-Event Model Governance
Mid-year reinsurance evidence, record dedicated capital, active ILS/cat-bond capacity, ADB disaster relief bonds, NAIC peril-specific capital work, carrier Q1 normalization, and fresh insurance ML research on fraud class imbalance and probability quality.
Edition 27: Disaster Relief Bonds, Infrastructure Risk, and Model Diagnostics
ADB issues inaugural disaster relief bonds for the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, Aon highlights digital infrastructure construction risk, EY/IIF keeps cyber at the top of the CRO agenda, IGI reports an 89.1% Q1 combined ratio, and new research sharpens mortality, fraud, pricing, and probability-calibration governance.
Edition 25: Funded Reinsurance, Geopolitical Risk, and Dependence Modelling
EIOPA insurance risk dashboard stability and natural-catastrophe research cooperation, Swiss Re on fragmented insurance markets, natural-catastrophe trend, and resilience gaps, plus research on Cape Cod reserving MSEP, competing risks, cure copulas, heatwave attribution, and tail-dependence diagnostics.
April 2026
Edition 24: Flood, Cat Bonds, and Infrastructure-Led Cyber Risk
Aon flags rising flood and drought risk, Zurich returns to the cat bond market with $150m Turicum Re, Tower Hill upsizes Winston Re to $375m at lower pricing, At-Bay reports ransomware shifting toward VPN and remote-access exploitation, with refined arXiv and journal sections on geography-driven MTPL modelling, ActuBench, biological age, Tweedie exposure treatment, and graph-based categorical embeddings.
Edition 23: Reinsurance Renewals & ILS Market Dynamics
UCITS cat bond funds cross $20bn AUM for the first time, April reinsurance renewals deliver steepest broad price correction in over a decade (down 10–30%), Hannover Re places third cloud risk cat bond, Dallas Fed documents home insurance inflation misalignment, and LASSO-penalized spatial estimation for multivariate Gaussian random fields.
Edition 22: ILS Institutionalizes: $20bn AUM, Cat Bond Innovation, and Spatial LASSO
UCITS cat bond funds cross $20bn AUM for the first time, April reinsurance renewals deliver steepest broad price correction in over a decade (down 10–30%), Hannover Re places third cloud risk cat bond, Dallas Fed documents home insurance inflation misalignment, and LASSO-penalized spatial estimation for multivariate Gaussian random fields.
Edition 21: Rates Fall 15–20%, ILS Assets Recover to $6.5bn
April reinsurance renewals bring deepening property-cat softening (Japan -15 to -20%), ILS assets recover to late-2018 levels (+24% YoY), climate-conditioned ILW strategies materially outperform static models, Palomar launches $375m cat bond.
Edition 20: The Market Correction Deepens
US commercial rates correct to +2.9%, cyber and D&O now price-declining, AI production era arrives (80% in production, 38% generating value), steepest reinsurance price decline in over a decade, Solvency II 2026 review advancing.
Edition 19: Reinsurance Renewals, Cloud Risk Cat Bonds, and Record ILS Capital
April renewals soften further, Hannover Re launches first cloud risk cat bond, Stone Ridge ILS AUM hits $6.5bn, Japan cat rates down 16%, and a structural shift in the cat bond market.
March 2026
Edition 18: April Renewals, Cat Bond Pipeline, and Pandemic Mortality Persistence
April reinsurance renewals in the Middle East shock, record cat bond pipeline, Hiscox earnings, PICC motor strength, and the Long Shadow of Pandemic mortality model.
Edition 17: Climate-First Pricing, GLM Transparency, and the Sovereign Cat Bond Frontier
Flood risk pricing in high-resolution climate models, interpretable GLMs, sovereign cat bonds in Africa and Latin America, and Swiss Re Institute research on 2025 nat cat losses.
Edition 16: AI in Underwriting, Graph Neural Networks, and Wildfire Risk Zones
Generative AI adoption in underwriting, graph neural networks for commercial property, wildfire risk zoning, and IFRS 17 insights from Willis Towers Watson.
February 2026
Edition 15: AI Actuarial Models, Private Credit, and Climate Risk Frontiers
AI-powered actuarial models, private credit risk, and climate risk frontiers.
Edition 14: Deep Learning Reserving, ICN Attention, and the Future of Pricing
Deep learning for reserving, ICN attention networks, and future pricing trends.
Edition 13: TabPFN v4, Temporal Fusion, and Credibility Networks
TabPFN v4, temporal fusion transformer, and credibility networks.
Edition 12: Neural Reserving, Embedding Regularization, and Model Risk
Neural network approaches to reserving, embedding regularization, and model risk.
January 2026
Edition 11: Foundation Models for Insurance, Neural Credit Risk, and Mortality Forecasting
Foundation models for insurance, neural credit risk, and mortality forecasting.
Edition 10: Climate Risk Stress Testing, Wildfire Modeling, and Premium Leakage
Climate risk stress testing, wildfire modeling, and premium leakage.
Edition 9: Synthetic Insurance Data, Neural Networks, and the Future of Actuarial Work
Synthetic insurance data generation, neural networks, and actuarial practice.
Edition 8: AI in Actuarial Science: A Research Roundup
AI applications in actuarial science research.
December 2025
Edition 7: Neural Mortality Models, Distribution Shift, and Catastrophe Bonds
Neural network mortality models, distribution shift, and cat bonds.
Edition 6: Deep Learning in P&C Insurance: Pricing, Reserving, and Beyond
Deep learning applications in P&C insurance pricing and reserving.
Edition 5: The Actuarial Foundation Model: Current Research and Future Directions
Actuarial foundation models, current research and future directions.
November 2025
Edition 4: Large Language Models for Actuarial Work: Opportunities and Challenges
LLMs for actuarial work, opportunities and challenges.
Edition 3: Actuarial AI Roundup: Neural Networks Meet Traditional Actuarial Methods
Neural networks and traditional actuarial methods.
Edition 2: Machine Learning in Insurance: From GLMs to Deep Learning
ML in insurance from GLMs to deep learning.
Edition 1: The Credibility Report Launch
Welcome to The Credibility Report.